Predictions for Publishing in 2010

Compiled by George Walkley

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Michael Cairns Martyn Daniels Kassia Krozser Bob Miller Mike Shatzkin Ted Treanor Joe Wikert
Enriched content will be important Yes Yes Yes Yes
Publishers will ignore enriched content Yes
Greater integration of ebooks with other products and services Yes
Publishers will be confused by what the product is that they produce Yes
Changes to form factor, such as shorter-form ebooks Yes Yes
Single-purpose, dedicated devices lose momentum to multi-purpose ones Yes
Proliferation of dedicated devices Yes
New bricks and mortar retail outlets for books Yes
Digital will place pressure on bricks and mortar bookselling chains Yes
Independent booksellers can thrive, but may have to specialise Yes Yes
Ebooks will require new industry directories Yes Yes
Need for standards for digital sales reporting Yes
Ebooks sales and share will increase and ebooks will be significant revenue contributors for many titles Yes Yes Yes
Strengthening of the epub standard Yes
XML-based production workflow as standard Yes
Low prices to the consumer will be seen as the norm Yes Yes Yes
Greater experimentation with price and new commercial models Yes Yes
Channels to market for ebooks will proliferate, including new players from outside publishing Yes Yes
Publishers will match their IP/offering to their strengths Yes
Publishers will attempt to build direct relationships with the consumer Yes
Trend toward high production value physical books as counterpoint to inexpensive ebooks Yes
Small publishers thrive Yes
Self publishing will increase Yes Yes
Large publishers cut back and/or consolidate Yes Yes Yes
Large publishers will concentrate on brand authors and/or reduce title output Yes
The siloing of content seen in educational publishing will increase in trade Yes
New models for acquisitions and advances Yes Yes
Windowing will be overtaken by events Yes
Consumers will demand simultaneous print and digital publication Yes
Consumers become more powerful Yes
Management of rights information will become ever more important Yes
Territorial rights will be increasingly under pressure Yes Yes Yes
Google changes everything Yes
Apple changes everything Yes
Authors with their own successful platforms will start to behave like publishers, including the possibility of disintermediation Yes Yes Yes
Need for authors' careers to be managed on an ongoing basis, not just around publication Yes
Demographics will favour younger readers
Libraries need to find a digital role Yes
Publishers realise that libraries are a threat Yes
Trade associations will scramble to stay relevant Yes
Importance of digital content in marketing all books will increase Yes Yes
By the end of 2010, we will be focused on the cloud, challenging our notions of ownership Yes
Conflict between players in the value chain Yes
Increased outsourcing for editorial and content production Yes
Business decisions will be made without fear Yes