I’ve just had three very busy days with friends, colleagues and clients at the London Book Fair. I spent time with every company in my portfolio, and had a great discussion with my publisher about my forthcoming book (watch this space for more). While the show is still fresh in the mind, here are a few reflections—less a comprehensive account of the Fair than a set of personal observations, raw signals and conversations that struck me over the last few days.

Earlier this week, John Willshire posted on LinkedIn about Claude Code and the sudden proliferation of niche tools people are building with it. He wondered whether this “personal software”—quick, bespoke tools built to solve a very specific problem for a single person or team—might eventually develop into something scalable. Someone else replied that perhaps scaling isn’t the point. If the cost of building software has collapsed, tools no longer need to justify themselves as products. They can exist just because someone finds them useful, interesting, or entertaining to make.

Everything is now a data business, especially media companies. My friend Alex Boden’s analysis of the Washington Post’s pivot to WP Intelligence is characteristically sharp: editorial expertise converted into structured intelligence products, sold to professional audiences on enterprise contracts. The playbook works for a news publisher. The question for trade book publishers is what version of that pivot is available to them.

Thanks to Luis González, Javier Celaya, Christopher Kenneally and their colleagues for inviting me to give a keynote address on the impact of AI on audiobook publishing this morning at Parix Audio Day 2026 in Madrid. It’s one of the best conferences in the publishing calendar, and hands down the best venue.

I’m on my way back from the IPG Spring Conference in London, always one of the highlights of the publishing year. It was a really good mix of the inspirational, the practical, and a uniquely generous, welcoming and supportive community. I particularly enjoyed the presentations from former Shazam chairman and crime writer Ajay Chowdhury, National Literacy Trust CEO Jonathan Douglas, BBC media editor Katie Razzall, Illumicrate CEO Daphne Tonge and Bonnier UK Co-CEOs Sarah Benton and Jonathan Perdoni. I spoke in the morning about the IPG’s forthcoming short training courses (data, content creation, websites/GEO and AI risk/governance) and in the afternoon to give members an update on the policy and licensing landscape for AI.

I had a couple of conversations this week that inspired a quick coda to my previous post on using Claude Code for prototyping ideas. The day after I posted it, I spoke with Tom, one of my most thoughtful and creative friends—someone who is about as far away from AI boosterism as it would be possible to get. A decade ago, he had spent several thousand pounds with a web developer building a location-aware mobile website. He asked how much information Claude Code needed to build something similar. I copied his sixty-word WhatsApp, clarified half a dozen questions that Claude asked in response, and it took under two minutes to replicate the core functionality.

Last week, Ethan Mollick posted about creating a functioning game with Claude Code and a one-shot prompt. As a first project with Claude Code, it seemed ambitious but appealing. I started with a single paragraph prompt to develop a short, simple adventure game in the style of the Sierra On-Line games I remember from the late eighties, with an AD&D 2nd Edition vibe. Getting a first, testable version was almost indecently fast. It then took several rounds of iteration to improve it, including a separate workstream to create retro style screens (Claude doesn’t have native image generation). The total active investment of time was about twenty minutes, with Claude Code running in the background while I did other things.

I don’t use TikTok, but it has been hard to escape its impact on the publishing industry, where I spent the first part of my career. Nielsen research suggests that one in four UK book buyers used TikTok in 2022, accounting for 90 million purchases. As a collective phenomenon, BookTok was awarded the person of the year award at last year’s Futurebook conference. In the meantime, there’s little doubt that the platform has a huge impact on commissioning, marketing and selling books, and that publishers are investing time and money to make the most of that. As a proxy for the level of interest, a search on the Bookseller magazine’s website this morning showed eighty nine search results for ‘TikTok’ for stories published in the first quarter of the year, versus four results for ‘GPT’. (Long term, I know which one I would bet on being most significant and transformative, but that’s another story.)

It’s the start of a new academic year, and I’ve been thinking a lot about volatility and uncertainty. Developing strategy in an uncertain context is the challenge underlying my current research on games and scenario planning. But even without that focus, just looking at the world around me this summer brought the subject home. Many of my clients experienced disruption to supply chains and operations during the Covid-19 pandemic; most are now contending with serious inflationary impacts. My current projects involve business partners on five continents, and talking to them, some level of political instability is a consistent theme. Even going on a family holiday, our first time out of the UK in two and a half years, raised uncomfortable questions about the state of world and sustainability, as we travelled against the backdrop of heatwaves and wildfires at home and devastating floods overseas.

I started a new project this week, doing a piece of business modelling for a client considering a new venture. As a result it was quite a different week to normal: very few Zooms or calls, and several days of intensely focused time researching and sorting the data I could find on the subject and building the first version of the model in Excel. Then testing the logic with a known set of data, before building a set of possible scenarios (base case, downside, upside) and running the model past a couple of senior stakeholders at the client for some useful feedback. Next week I’ll be working on improvements to the basic model.

This week was largely spent designing a strategy workshop for an ongoing client. The latter would have been much more straightforward if it were being delivered in person: as it is, I’ve been having to think how to adjust the format for online delivery. Part of that is designing the workshop around short, focused sessions with ample screen breaks. I’m also allowing for regular check-ins with the audience. In person, it’s generally possible to have a sense of the level of interest and focus in the room through watching body language and reactions, but that’s much harder on Zoom. So I’m building in prompts to explicitly ask participants if they’re happy with the material before proceeding, more so than I might if I could gauge a positive mood in the room.

I first heard of EBITDAC in mid-April when a business school classmate sent a meme to a WhatsApp group showing a new term that we definitely hadn’t learned in Corporate Finance classes: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, Amortization and Coronavirus. At the time it seemed pretty funny—well, at least to a bunch of MBAs—so I sent it to a few peopl and forgot about it.