How AI Affects Publishing Depends on Existing Incentives
Earlier today I attended an online seminar hosted by the Creative Industries Policy and Evidence Centre, where Dr Paul Crosby from Macquarie University presented recent research on authors and AI carried out in Australia. Many of the sentiments expressed in the research were familiar: author concerns about the morality of AI training and the impact of AI outputs on their livelihood echoed many of the findings of the Cambridge research on AI and the novel published last November. What I found most interesting about the Australian research is that it was interpreted through economics and econometric analysis. One of the key questions was whether, if AI companies train on human creative work without compensation, the long-run incentives for cultural production are weakened. The concern was that more economically marginal forms of publishing such as literary, niche and experimental writing could be hardest hit. Framing the impact on authors and the creative industries as an externality is a helpful way of emphasising to policy makers that the economic benefits of training on copyrighted work accrue overwhelmingly to tech companies in the US, while the costs are potentially distributed across the wider cultural ecosystem globally. This is a textbook setup for undersupply of a public good (creative works).